Healthcare Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

Healthcare expenditures have been rising in the United States at what has been described as “unsustainable” levels for a sustained length of time. In 1960 in the United States 5% of GDP, or only about $27 Billion, was spent on Healthcare. In 1995, the US went over $1T in healthcare expenditures for the first time which was then 13.4% of GDP. A mere 10 years later and we topped $2T. In 2019, we were at $3.8T, which is almost 18% of GDP! How do we make sense of it, plan for it, and remediate?

Join Erin Wessling, Bryan Kwiatkowski, and Max Krueger from Optum’s Trend Analytics team as they give the background on how we’ve arrived where we are today. They will dive into methods for monitoring and measuring trends, as well as methods for forecasting future trends and intersection with reserving. The effects of COVID-19 are present throughout trend monitoring, measuring, and forecasting and the discussion will include COVID-19 observations and considerations. Finally, most importantly they will describe steps that can be taken to help mitigate the forecasted trends.

  • Date:Tuesday, September 14
  • Time:2:15 PM - 3:30 PM EDT
  • Session Type:Concurrent Session
  • Session Code:HC-1
  • Learning Objective 1:Identify methods for monitoring trend to identify favorable and unfavorable trend drivers.
  • Learning Objective 2:Identify key trend forecast components to increase transparency and A:E measurement.
  • Learning Objective 3:Link trend observations to forecast and mitigation.
  • Level of Knowledge:Level 2: General knowledge of the subject
  • Moderator:Kevin Donnelly