Repeated history of pandemics such as SARS, Swine flu, Ebola, Zika and COVID-19 have shown that contingency planning for pandemics is a necessary component of risk management for all organizations in modern society. Today’s technology allows us to use epidemiological models to predict the spread of infectious diseases in the similar way that meteorological models are used to forecast weather. Taking advantage of epidemic models, we can project the dynamics of demand and supply for medical resources at different phases of a pandemic. Such predictions provide quantitative bases for decision makers of healthcare systems to understand the potential imbalance of supply and demand, and to address disparities of access to critical medical supply across different subsidiaries.
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